Fourth Round Held — Then Postponed, Then Rescheduled
This week delivered significant movement. The fourth bilateral round of U.S.–Mexico USMCA review talks — originally scheduled for early September and then delayed by one week — ultimately took place on September 28–29 in Washington, D.C. The delay followed a call between President Trump and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum in which, according to sources cited by iTiger, new topics were introduced into the discussion, adding uncertainty. A U.S. official described the call as productive. No public joint statement had been released as of October 2.
Where Negotiations Stand
U.S. and Mexican technical teams expanded their negotiating agenda from 54 to 90 sections, with Mexico's Undersecretary Gutiérrez describing technical coordination with USTR as a "daily" occurrence even during the September pause caused by the Xi-Trump summit in Washington. The central unresolved items heading into the September 28–29 round were automotive rules of origin, steel and aluminum tariffs, and energy policy. USTR Ambassador Jamieson Greer has told the Senate he hopes to reach interim arrangements with both Mexico and Canada before year-end, with more complex rule changes expected to carry into 2027.
Agriculture: The Calgary Meeting
On October 1, the Ag Coalition for USMCA gathered North American agriculture leaders in Calgary, Alberta for the Tri-National Agricultural Accord. The coalition highlighted that agricultural and seafood exports to Canada and Mexico supported $149 billion in U.S. economic output in 2024, and used the meetings to push for continued cooperation during the review. U.S. dairy groups remain the most vocal critics, citing Canada's failure to deliver "commercially meaningful" market access under its USMCA dairy commitments. rfdtv
Canada: Still on the Sidelines
Canada has not been included in any formal bilateral round. No trilateral arrangement involving Canada has been announced, and the current U.S. strategy prioritizes a bilateral deal with Mexico first. USTR Greer has stated the U.S. is "very comfortable" with its current position toward Canada and sees no urgency. Canada's Trade Minister LeBlanc has continued pressing Washington on sectoral tariffs while defending the trilateral framework. itiger
Regulatory Status
The USMCA remains fully in force. On July 1, 2026, the U.S. declined to renew it for an additional 16-year term under Article 34.7, triggering annual reviews. The 16-year extension remains available at any time through written confirmation by the three heads of government under Article 34.7.4. The agreement does not expire until July 1, 2036. iisd
What This Means
The September 28–29 round is the most consequential USMCA session to date. For importers and exporters, the key near-term risk is automotive: tighter rules of origin on U.S.-made vehicle content — one of Washington's core demands — would force supply chain restructuring across the entire North American auto sector. For agricultural traders, the dairy dispute with Canada and the seasonal produce dispute with Mexico remain live irritants that could be escalated or resolved in any interim deal Greer achieves before year-end. The exclusion of Canada from bilateral talks is the structural wildcard — it means any U.S.–Mexico interim deal reached soon would not automatically extend to Canadian trade on non-USMCA terms, creating potential asymmetries in cross-border supply chains.
Sources
- RFD-TV — Canadian Ag Leaders Gather in Calgary as USMCA Review Continues, October 1, 2026: rfdtv.com
- iTiger / Mexico Solidarity — Fourth Round Delayed to September 28–29; Trump-Sheinbaum Call: itiger.com
- The Last Refuge — U.S. and Mexico Trade Teams Expand Technical Topics from 54 to 90 Sections, September 26, 2026: theconservativetreehouse.com
- USTR — Joint Statement from Ambassador Greer and Secretary Ebrard, July 23, 2026: ustr.gov
- White & Case / IISD — USMCA 2026 Joint Review: U.S. Declines to Extend Agreement: iisd.org
- ICPA — USMCA Joint Review Tracker (updated August 10, 2026): icpainc.org
- PBS NewsHour — Mexico's Foreign Secretary on USMCA Trade Talks, September 2026: pbs.org