Tariff Watch: The Newest US Trade Policy Moves and Who They Affect
October 13, 2026 | ATN Trade & Finance
Five distinct trade policy moves landed in the past two weeks. Here is what each one means and who needs to pay attention.
US-China Tariff Reductions: Agreed, Not Yet in Effect
The biggest headline is the September 27 agreement between Washington and Beijing to reduce tariffs on 77 product categories — including toys, child safety seats, holiday decorations, microwave ovens, towels, and bed linens. The reductions are not yet in effect: each government must still implement them through its own legal process, meaning final rates and a start date remain uncertain. Both sides reserved the right to adjust the list, with changes permitted no more than once per year. US importers in these categories should hold off on repricing until implementing regulations are published.
USMCA Review: Consultation Opens Now, Decision in 2027
USTR formally opened public consultations this week ahead of the 2027 USMCA joint review — the first formal assessment since the agreement took effect. Comments are due January 12, 2027. The review will determine whether the US, Canada, and Mexico agree to extend the agreement or allow it to lapse toward its 2036 termination date. For trade-dependent manufacturers and agricultural exporters, now is the time to submit positions on tariff schedules, rules of origin, and the auto sector provisions that remain contentious. Commerce also clarified this week that qualifying USMCA steel, aluminum, and copper products owe the 25% Section 232 tariff only on their non-US content — a meaningful cost reduction for domestically processed metals.
Milwaukee Steel Framework: Coordinated Enforcement Against China
The US and 27 other nations formally adopted the Milwaukee Steel Framework, a coordinated enforcement initiative targeting Chinese steel overcapacity. The framework enables participating governments to self-initiate antidumping and countervailing duty investigations without waiting for domestic industry petitions. No new tariff rate has been set yet, but US steel importers sourcing from any of China's established transshipment routes — Malaysia, Vietnam, Mexico — should expect increased scrutiny.
CBP Low-Value Shipment Proposal
CBP proposed mandatory electronic filing for all informal and mail entries valued at $2,500 or less, along with a new electronic mail entry type and bonding requirements for Chapter 99 goods between $250 and $2,500. The proposal is still open for comment. If finalized, it would add documentation and compliance overhead for direct-to-consumer importers and e-commerce fulfillment operators — an already-strained segment since de minimis was suspended in August 2025.
IEEPA Refunds: $136.6 Billion and Counting
CBP has now processed $136.6 billion in IEEPA refund claims, with 209,262 declarations passing validation covering 27.4 million entries. CAPE Phase 3, launched October 6, opens the refund window to importers covered by the court's reliquidation order — an estimated 477 declarations covering 425,517 additional entries. Separately, the Court of International Trade certified a nationwide class action in the lead IEEPA refund case; DOJ is expected to appeal. Importers who have not yet filed should act quickly as each phase has its own intake window.
What this means for importers: The China consumer-goods agreement is the most consequential if it clears implementation — watch for a Federal Register notice before adjusting landed costs. The USMCA review is a slower burn but could reshape rules of origin for autos and steel in ways that affect North American supply chains for a decade.
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