Tariff Watch: The Newest US Trade Policy Moves and Who They Affect

October 21, 2026 | ATN Trade & Finance

Four distinct tariff actions are reshaping import costs and trade strategy for US businesses this month: a presidential waiver that blocked Russia sanctions from taking effect, a US-China tariff reduction framework awaiting implementation, the July 24 Section 301 forced-labor tariff regime now in full force across 60 economies, and the opening of IEEPA refund claims for the final category of affected importers.

Trump Waives Graham Act Russia Tariffs — China, India, Turkey Are the Beneficiaries

On October 16, President Trump signed an executive order invoking a presidential waiver provision of the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia Act of 2026 — a bill he had signed into law the previous month on a bipartisan 86-11 Senate vote. The law was set to impose 100% tariffs on the five largest importers of Russian crude and natural gas and 500% tariffs on Russian goods broadly, effective October 18. Trump certified the waiver as being in the national interest, citing ongoing Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations and his administration's deal to import Russian diesel into the US market, which Treasury had authorized through April.

The primary targets of the Graham Act were China, India, and Turkey — the world's three largest buyers of Russian energy since the war began. The waivers stay in effect until the administration determines further action is warranted. The move drew sharp bipartisan criticism: Sen. Thom Tillis called it "beyond irresponsible," Sen. Chuck Schumer called it economic life support for Russia, and Zelenskyy said it eased pressure on Moscow. The waiver has direct relevance for any US company importing goods from countries that would have been hit with the secondary tariffs — primarily Chinese suppliers, which now avoid a potential 100% surcharge on top of existing Section 301 duties.

US-China $60 Billion Tariff Reduction: Framework Agreed, Rates Not Yet Set

On September 27, following a Trump-Xi meeting, Washington and Beijing jointly announced a framework to reduce tariffs on $60 billion of bilateral trade — roughly $30 billion in each direction. The US side identified 77 Chinese product lines for potential cuts, covering items such as toys, playing cards, sporting equipment, flashlights, vacuum-insulated containers, and microwave ovens. China's reciprocal list covers 1,619 US product lines including corn, wheat, frozen meat, and seafood. USTR Jamieson Greer said the deal would improve "market access for about 30% of U.S. exports to China."

The critical caveat: no rates have been announced and no effective date has been set. Each government must implement the reductions through its own domestic legal process, and both sides have said adjustments will happen no more than once per year. For importers, this is a framework to monitor rather than act on — current tariff rates remain in effect on all covered categories.

Section 301 Forced-Labor Tariffs: 60 Economies, In Force Since July 24

The broadest new US tariff regime of 2026 took effect July 24 and deserves attention from any company sourcing from outside a narrow set of exempt countries. USTR imposed additional Section 301 duties on imports from 60 economies, covering 99.4% of US import volume. The rates are tiered:

10% additional duty applies to imports from Canada, Mexico, India, the UK, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, and 9 others.
12.5% additional duty applies to China, Brazil, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Turkey, Singapore, South Africa, Israel, and 29 others.
The EU, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and Switzerland are subject to MFN-capped rates that phase in only where existing duties fall below the threshold.

Critically, these duties are origin-based, not product-specific — the tariff applies regardless of whether a particular shipment involves forced labor. Canada and Mexico are included despite USMCA, which protects most goods on their own track but does not override Section 301. Importers should note that paying this duty does not satisfy separate forced-labor compliance obligations under the Customs Act; those continue in parallel. Textile and apparel from Bangladesh, Cambodia, Indonesia, and Malaysia will eventually be eligible for tariff-rate quotas, but those quotas are not yet in effect.

IEEPA Refund Phase 3 Opens — $122 Billion Processed So Far

For importers still pursuing refunds from the IEEPA tariffs that the Supreme Court ruled unlawful on February 20, 2026 (Learning Resources v. Trump), CBP opened Phase 3 of the CAPE refund process on October 6. Phase 3 covers "finally liquidated entries" — shipments whose duty calculations are too old for CBP to reopen without a court order. Eligibility is limited to importers that filed lawsuits and obtained Court of International Trade orders. CBP has processed approximately $134.7 billion in potential and certified refund claims across all phases, with about $122 billion certified and sent to Treasury for payment. Of 27.2 million entries claimed through CAPE, 6.1 million failed CBP's review — most commonly because the entry fell outside the 90-day reopening window, lacked the IEEPA duty tariff code, or had already been claimed in an earlier phase.

What this means: The Russia Graham Act waiver keeps Chinese, Indian, and Turkish buyers of Russian energy out of a potential secondary tariff trap — a meaningful relief for importers whose China-sourced goods could have faced stacked duties. The US-China $60 billion reduction is real but speculative until rates and dates are published; model it as upside, not current cost. The Section 301 forced-labor regime is the most operational change for importers who have not yet updated their landed-cost models — Canada, Mexico, the UK, and India are all inside its scope at 10%, and China and Vietnam at 12.5%. IEEPA Phase 3 is the last call for litigation-track refund claimants.

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Tariff Watch: The Newest US Trade Policy Moves and Who They Affect

Tariff Watch: The Newest US Trade Policy Moves and Who They Affect

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