Natural Gas and LNG: Latest Prices, Exports and Supply News
October 8, 2026 | ATN Trade & Finance
Three very different natural gas markets are running simultaneously right now: a well-supplied and cheap US domestic market, a tight and expensive European market, and an Asian spot market that has pulled back from recent highs on mild weather expectations — even as the Hormuz conflict keeps a floor under global LNG prices.
Where Prices Stand This Week
Henry Hub prompt-month futures settled at $3.00/MMBtu as of October 2 — down $0.20 from the prior week — held in check by warm weather forecasts and record US production. The American Gas Association's October 1 market indicators put the September average at $2.93/MMBtu, about 6% lower than last summer's pace.
European TTF, by contrast, rose to $24.6/MMBtu as the market refocused on winter supply risk. EU gas storage came in at 72.2% full as of early October — 17.5% below the five-year average — a deficit that has kept TTF elevated despite a quieter summer. Asian JKM spot LNG for November delivery slipped to the high-$24s/MMBtu on subdued East Asian buying and expectations of a mild Northern Hemisphere winter, though traders note that any Hormuz escalation could reverse that quickly.
US Production and Export Records
US dry gas output is forecast at 111.7 Bcf/d for 2026, a new record — and production hit an all-time single-day high on September 17. Storage is comfortable: working gas in the lower 48 states reached 3,415 Bcf for the week ending September 25, sitting 2.4% above the five-year average, with EIA projecting inventories near 4 Tcf by end of October — the second-highest end-of-October level on record.
LNG feedgas deliveries averaged 18.0 Bcf/d in September. Total US LNG exports hit approximately 109 million tonnes in 2025 — the third consecutive year as the world's largest LNG exporter — and 2026 is on pace to exceed that. Golden Pass LNG in Texas is expected to begin exports within weeks, adding further capacity. Venture Global is separately in talks to supply additional US LNG volumes to Chinese buyers, a development to watch given the US-China "30-for-30" trade truce.
Canada: LNG Canada Running, More Decisions Ahead
Canada's first LNG export terminal, LNG Canada (Kitimat, B.C.), has been operational since mid-2025 with Phase 1 capacity of up to 15 million tonnes per year. A Phase 2 final investment decision is expected by year-end, which would double Kitimat's capacity. Ksi Lisims LNG in northwest B.C. — adding approximately 12 million tonnes per year — also has a 2026 FID target. With Woodfibre LNG (2.1 Mt/y, due late 2027) and Cedar LNG (up to 3.75 Mt/y, due late 2028) also under construction, Canada's export capacity could reach nearly 33 million tonnes per year by 2030.
What this means for energy buyers and sellers: The US-Europe price spread — $3.00 Henry Hub versus $24.60 TTF — is the economic argument for every LNG export project currently being built. That spread does the work that policy cannot: it is why US LNG capacity is heading toward 140 million tonnes by end of 2026, and why Canada's Phase 2 and Ksi Lisims investment decisions are coming. For North American industrial gas consumers, the domestic supply picture is genuinely comfortable heading into winter. The risk is on the export side: if Hormuz disruptions worsen and global LNG demand spikes, feedgas competition from export terminals could tighten the domestic supply margin faster than current storage levels suggest.
Sources:
- Natural Gas Market Indicators, October 1, 2026 — American Gas Association
- Natural Gas Prices Weekly Update: JKM, TTF and Henry Hub (5 October 2026) — Global LNG Hub
- U.S. LNG Exports Hit Record Highs as Ottawa Seeks to Boost Canada's Modest Output — The Globe and Mail
- Global LNG Shortfall Fuels Winter Call for Rising US Exports — Natural Gas Intelligence
- North America's LNG Export Capacity Could More Than Double by 2029 — EIA
- Venture Global in Talks to Supply US LNG to More Chinese Buyers — Bloomberg