Ports and Shipping Update: Delays, Congestion and Container Rates
October 14, 2026 | ATN Trade & Finance
Global container shipping is in its worst congestion cycle in four years, and the data released this week suggests the crunch is deepening rather than easing heading into Q4.
On-Time Performance: Near Historic Lows
Global vessel on-time reliability fell to 27% in September — its fourth consecutive monthly decline, according to Xeneta. The average delay across all vessel arrivals reached 6 days, up 2.4 days since Q2 began. The Far East-to-Europe lane is the worst affected, with just 4% of ships arriving on time and an average delay of 9.9 days — the lane's poorest performance since September 2021. Asia-to-North America fared only slightly better at 20% on-time with a 6.9-day average delay. Singapore's daily vessel queue nearly doubled to 22 ships, with average wait times rising from 1.9 to 3.1 days. Shanghai's anchorage queue sits at 86 vessels waiting an average of 2.7 days, while more than 130 ships are holding roughly 860,000 TEUs across Shanghai and Ningbo combined.
Container Rates: Transpacific at Multi-Year Highs
Rates on the China–US West Coast route hit $7,717 per FEU in early October — more than four times the $1,778 recorded in September 2025 and 8% above early September 2026. Long-term contract rates have also moved sharply, rising 26% month-over-month to $3,649/FEU as of October 1. The Asia-to-US gap versus other major trade lanes is now more than twice the 2021 record, per Xeneta.
What's Driving It
Sea-Intelligence estimates congestion is absorbing roughly 8.5% of the global containership fleet — approximately 3 million TEUs of effective capacity. The proximate causes are overlapping: repeated typhoons disrupting port schedules across Asia, the Golden Week cargo surge, and the ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption affecting vessel routing and fuel costs. US import demand has also remained stronger than expected — the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis estimates US imports would have declined roughly 10% without AI-infrastructure-related investment.
Blank sailings are rising: announced capacity cuts reach 17% of planned Far East-to-Europe sailings and 13% of Far East-to-North America in October, up from 6% and 8% in September. Even the Gemini alliance (Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd), which launched specifically to improve reliability, has seen on-time performance drop from 70% in June to 28% in early October data.
What this means for shippers: Sea-Intelligence projects it could take 7 to 10 months to return to the low-congestion levels seen in mid-2025 — which means disruptions likely persist past Chinese New Year (February 6, 2027). Xeneta advises booking early, confirming which services are protected from blank sailings, and building more lead time into October and Q1 planning. Locking in long-term rates now, before contract season, looks increasingly attractive given spot rate trajectory.
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