Your Gateway to America's Market and Global Opportunities

Your Company Could Be Here

Global Exposure. Real Business Results.

Advertise with ATN
Join ATN

Ports and Shipping Update: Delays, Congestion and Container Rates

Ports and Shipping Update: Delays, Congestion and Container Rates

ATN BREAKING NEWS |

Ports and Shipping Update: Delays, Congestion and Container Rates

October 21, 2026 | ATN Trade & Finance

Container rates are bifurcating: transpacific lanes are holding near elevated levels while Asia-Europe spot rates have been in a prolonged slide. Red Sea transit is resuming but remains fragile. Los Angeles and Long Beach are entering peak season with dwell times at multi-year highs and a major bridge closure arriving November 1. Here is the full picture.

Container Rates: Transpacific Holds, Asia-Europe Rebounds on GRIs

As of October 15, Drewry's World Container Index composite stood at $4,485 per 40-foot container, up 3% on the week. Route-level readings show the divergence clearly: Shanghai to Los Angeles was $7,884 (+3%), Shanghai to New York $10,075 (-1%), Shanghai to Rotterdam $3,522 (+6%), and Shanghai to Genoa $3,945 (+7%). The Europe-route increases are primarily carrier-driven — general rate increases (GRIs) announced ahead of the 2027 long-term contract negotiation season — and some forwarders are skeptical they will hold beyond a few weeks.

The Freightos Baltic Index for the week of October 20 confirms the transpacific picture: Asia-US West Coast (FBX01) was $8,126/FEU (flat), Asia-US East Coast (FBX03) $9,700/FEU (+1%). Transatlantic spot rates have risen roughly $200/FEU since late September to approximately $2,850/FEU — up 25% year-over-year on that lane. The year-over-year comparisons on Asia-Europe tell a different story: Mediterranean rates are down approximately 43% and North Europe rates down 34% since July 1, as Suez Canal transits have normalized. Suez transits in week 39 were 68% higher than the same week a year ago.

Red Sea: Carriers Returning, Risk Rising

Container carriers have been steadily routing through the Suez Canal, and Freightos expects full transit recovery by Q1 2027. The return is gradual — which limits the vessel bunching and schedule chaos that accompanied the initial diversion — but the risk picture is not settled. Houthi-Saudi violence has been intensifying, and Houthi forces have demonstrated the ability to attack shipping near Bab el-Mandeb. Separately, Iran has escalated attacks near the Strait of Hormuz: a Dubai-linked container ship was sunk in the past week. Most Hormuz traffic remains tankers, but the incident is driving crude prices near $100/barrel and adding a new risk corridor to global routing decisions. The return of Red Sea capacity, when complete, is also expected to amplify the oversupply dynamic in the container market heading into 2027 — a risk carriers are already managing through blank sailings.

Blank Sailings and Schedule Reliability

Carriers have filed 39 blank sailings for weeks 41–45 (out of approximately 710 scheduled departures, roughly 5%), concentrated on transpacific eastbound (49%), Asia-Europe and Mediterranean (33%), and transatlantic (18%). Schedule reliability has deteriorated significantly: on-time vessel arrivals on the Asia-US West Coast fell from 56% in May to 26% in September, driven by the interaction of Red Sea re-routing, Panama Canal water restrictions, and port congestion. Global schedule reliability dropped again in August, with Asia reliability at 32.3% according to Sea-Intelligence. Importers planning holiday inventory arrivals should build an additional two to three weeks of buffer beyond historical lead times.

Los Angeles and Long Beach: Dwell Times at Multi-Year Highs

The San Pedro Bay complex — which handles approximately 40% of US container imports — is showing stress. Rail dwell time in August averaged 6.75 days, the highest in 17 months. Truck dwell averaged 2.95 days, approaching an 18-month high. Empty container backlogs and chassis shortages are emerging as peak-season import volumes arrive: the National Retail Federation projected September as the highest-volume import month of the year, and Los Angeles imports from Asia were up 4% January through August year-over-year.

A significant complication arrives November 1: the Vincent Thomas Bridge — a key connector between the Port of Los Angeles and major inland highways — is closing for approximately 16 months for structural repairs. The closure will force drayage rerouting and is expected to add strain to already-stretched chassis and trucker availability in the basin. Importers with cargo moving through San Pedro Bay in Q4 should confirm alternative routing with their drayage providers before the closure date.

New York/New Jersey: Contractor Reclassification Risk

On the East Coast, New Jersey's implementation of the ABC Test for worker classification remains the operational watch item. The test, if applied to port drayage, could reclassify up to 77% of independent contractor truck drivers as employees — adding wage, benefits, insurance, and HR costs to regional drayage operators. No immediate disruptions have materialized, but carriers and importers with New York/New Jersey volumes are advised to monitor developments through Q4.

Air Freight Rates Surge

For shippers considering air as an alternative: China-US air cargo rates rose 19% week-over-week to $6.88/kg, and China-Europe rose 8% to $3.87/kg, according to the Freightos Air Index. Holiday-season pull-forward is already moving some shippers to air, contributing to the spike. The European Union is adding a €2 per small parcel handling fee starting November 1, on top of a €3 customs surcharge introduced in July — relevant for e-commerce shippers routing through European hubs.

What this means: The ports-and-rates picture heading into Q4 is one of elevated transpacific costs, partial Asia-Europe rate recovery driven by GRIs rather than demand, and a Red Sea normalization process that is not yet complete and carries meaningful rollback risk. For North American importers, the Los Angeles/Long Beach dwell time spike and the November 1 Vincent Thomas Bridge closure are the two most near-term operational risks, and they arrive simultaneously. Shippers with holiday inventory still at sea should assume a 26% on-time delivery probability and plan inland logistics accordingly.

Sources:

Leave a comment