USMCA Watch: The Latest on the North American Trade Agreement
October 14, 2026 | ATN Trade & Finance
The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement entered a new phase of uncertainty this summer after the US declined to extend it at the mandatory six-year joint review — a decision that has set in motion annual reviews, an active US-Mexico bilateral track, and escalating trade tensions with Canada.
The July 1 Joint Review: No Extension
Under Article 34.7, the three USMCA partners were required to conduct a joint review by July 1, 2026, and decide whether to extend the agreement through 2036 or trigger annual reviews until 2036, at which point USMCA either gets renewed or lapses. Mexico and Canada both supported extension. The US did not. USTR Jamieson Greer stated publicly that the United States "did not agree to renew USMCA in its current form." The result: the agreement remains in force — it does not expire — but the parties must now conduct a joint review every year under Article 34.7.4 until either an extension is agreed or the 2036 deadline arrives.
What the US Is Pushing For
The US has opened a bilateral track with Mexico. Three rounds of talks have taken place, with Mexico Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard saying the two sides are "getting close" on outstanding issues. The US has not publicly detailed its demands in full, but the no-extension decision came against a backdrop of broad dissatisfaction with existing rules of origin, labor enforcement, and digital trade provisions. Canada's stated priority is the resolution of steel, aluminum, auto, and lumber tariff disputes before any renegotiation can proceed.
Public Comment Period Now Open
On October 5, 2026, USTR filed notice in the Federal Register opening a public comment period related to the 2027 joint review — the first annual review triggered by the no-extension decision. Comments are due January 12, 2027. USTR will also hold a public hearing on a date to be announced. The review will examine USMCA's implementation, compliance, and effect on the North American economic climate.
The Canada Complication
The review is unfolding while US-Canada trade relations are severely strained. The US imposed 50% tariffs on Canadian goods in August, Canada retaliated in September, and the US followed with expanded tariffs and import bans effective September 29 — all under Section 338. Canada has framed tariff resolution as a prerequisite to productive USMCA talks.
What this means for businesses: USMCA is not going away — the agreement stays in force through at least 2036 — but the annual review mechanism creates recurring uncertainty about its terms. Businesses relying on USMCA preferential treatment for cross-border supply chains should monitor the January 12, 2027 comment deadline and any shifts in the US-Mexico bilateral track, which appears to be the most active front right now.
Sources: