Oil Price Update: What Is Moving Crude Markets
October 13, 2026 | ATN Trade & Finance
Crude oil pulled back Monday as risk appetite weakened across markets, but prices remain historically elevated — a reflection of a market still working through the aftermath of the Hormuz crisis even as the strait returns toward normal operations.
Where Prices Stand
WTI crude settled around $93–94 per barrel Monday, down roughly 1–2% on the session. Brent traded near $105–106, also off on the day. Both benchmarks are well below their 2026 peaks — WTI reached $119.47 on March 9 and Brent hit $120.88 on April 30 — but remain dramatically above where they ended 2025, when WTI was trading around $55 in mid-December.
The Hormuz Backstory
The defining event of 2026 for oil markets was the outbreak of conflict involving Iran in late February, which drove fears of Strait of Hormuz disruption — the chokepoint through which roughly 20% of global oil supply flows. Brent briefly topped $126/bbl at the peak. Since mid-year, Hormuz shipping has been returning toward normal operations, and analysts have been cutting their full-year 2026 price forecasts accordingly. A Reuters poll of 31 economists and analysts conducted at end of June set the Brent 2026 average forecast at $84.50/bbl and WTI at $79.49 — implying current prices still carry a meaningful geopolitical risk premium.
The Supply Outlook Is Shifting
As Hormuz normalizes, the fundamental supply picture is turning bearish. HSBC expects the market to swing from roughly a 2 million bpd deficit to a surplus of about 1 million bpd in Q4 2026, assuming Gulf output continues recovering. LBBW says normal Hormuz traffic should return the market to oversupply, pushing prices lower in the second half of the year. The IEA projects global supply growth of 8 million bpd in 2027 against demand growth of only about 2 million bpd — a widening gap that would exert sustained downward pressure on prices into next year.
What to Watch
Three factors are keeping prices from falling faster: residual geopolitical uncertainty in the Gulf (any re-escalation could spike the risk premium back immediately), OPEC+ production discipline as surplus builds, and the demand impact of oil above $100 on global growth and industrial activity. The ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid index jumping to 77.9 in September — with oil in the $108–$113 range during that survey period — shows that elevated crude is already feeding into factory inflation.
What this means for energy buyers and sellers: The direction of travel is lower, but the pace is uncertain and entirely event-dependent. Buyers locking in supply contracts now are doing so with prices still roughly $10–20 above analysts' year-end forecasts. For North American industrial users, the domestic natural gas picture ($3.00/MMBtu Henry Hub) offers a far more comfortable hedging position than crude — the spread between gas and oil on an energy-equivalent basis remains near multi-year highs.
Sources:
- Oil Prices Today: WTI & Brent — Onevalor
- Crude Oil Price Today: October 13, 2026 — Forbes Advisor
- Hormuz returns to normal, analysts cut 2026 oil price forecasts — IDN Financials
- Hormuz Strait returns to normal, analysts cut 2026 oil price forecasts — IDN Financials
- EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook — OPIS