USMCA Watch: The Latest on the North American Trade Agreement
October 13, 2026 | ATN Trade & Finance
The USMCA is in a status that has no real precedent: still fully in force, but not renewed, generating annual reviews, and running on three separate tracks — one cooperative, one contentious, and one frozen. Here is where things stand.
The July 1 Review: Not Renewed
The agreement's mandatory six-year joint review was held on July 1, 2026. Under Article 34.7, the three parties were to either confirm a 16-year extension or begin a new negotiation before expiry in 2036. Canada and Mexico confirmed they would extend. The United States did not, stating it "did not agree to renew the USMCA in its current form." The immediate consequence: Article 34.7.4 is now triggered, requiring the Free Trade Commission to hold a joint review every year until either all three parties confirm an extension or the agreement lapses on July 1, 2036.
The text of the agreement — preferential tariffs, rules of origin, investment protections, Chapter 19 dispute settlement — remains fully in force. The US decision was a procedural non-renewal, not a withdrawal notice, and withdrawal requires six months' written notice under a separate provision that has not been invoked.
The 2027 Review Is Already Open for Comment
On October 5, USTR published a Federal Register notice opening public comment ahead of the 2027 annual joint review. Comments are due January 12, 2027 at 11:59 p.m. EST through docket USTR-2026-0595. Requests to testify at the public hearing go through docket USTR-2026-0596, same deadline. USTR is asking about "implementation, compliance and the impact of the deal on the North American economic climate" — language broad enough to encompass anything from rules of origin for semiconductors to agricultural market access. The next review deadline is July 1, 2027.
US-Mexico: The Active Track
The US and Mexico have conducted three rounds of bilateral talks since the review process began. At the G20 Trade Ministerial in Milwaukee, Mexico's Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard met with USTR Jamieson Greer and described the talks as productive: "We are getting close on many things." The bilateral framing suggests Washington's preference is to address its concerns through a two-party negotiation — with Mexico as the more tractable counterpart — rather than a trilateral renegotiation. What specific provisions the US is targeting in those talks has not been formally disclosed.
US-Canada: The Frozen Track
Canada is effectively not at the USMCA negotiating table right now. Prime Minister Mark Carney recalled Canadian negotiators after the US imposed a 50% tariff on approximately $20 billion in Canadian imports in August. Canada responded with its own retaliatory duties in September, and the US subsequently expanded the 50% tariff list and banned imports of certain Canadian alcohol, dairy products, and motor vehicles. Canada's stated priority is the removal of US sectoral tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, and lumber — all outside the USMCA's core disciplines — rather than negotiating changes to the agreement's text.
What This Means for Trade Practitioners
The agreement's preferential terms continue to apply, so USMCA origin certificates, rules-of-origin documentation, and the TRQ system for Canadian dairy and US sugar remain operative. The procedural clock is running: if the three parties cannot agree to extend by July 1, 2036, the agreement terminates on its own. With the US-Canada tariff dispute blocking one of the three bilateral relationships, the path to a trilateral extension confirmation is narrower than the July 1 review made it look.
What this means for exporters and importers: USMCA preference claims are still valid and worth taking today — nothing in the non-renewal changes that. The January 12 comment deadline is the near-term action item for any company with a stake in specific USMCA chapters: rules of origin for autos, agricultural TRQs, digital trade, or state-owned enterprise disciplines are all plausibly on the table for the 2027 review.
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